Drones and Oil
The European Union now faces an alleged "shadow war" being staged by Russia. Yet, as Moscow's war machine begins to show signs of stress, why take such bold a step now?
In early September, Russian drones entered Polish airspace en masse for the first time since the outbreak of war in Ukraine. The crisis which followed resulted in the invocation of NATO’s Article 4 by NATO and the concurrent use of NATO military assets to neutralize Russian drones which had entered Polish airspace. However, in the weeks that have followed, such escalations have only further increased in scope.
Only days after the drone incursion into eastern Poland, similar actions on behalf of Russian drones were reported in Romania. And, perhaps more importantly, many of the Baltic states witnessed direct violations of their airspace by Russian aircraft.
In early October, we have seen rather inexplicable drone incursions take place in the heart of Europe as well. Airports in Germany and Denmark have been center-stage in such cases, with Russian drones launching from undocumented and covert locations throughout Europe with the purpose of fomenting public hysteria, domestic instability, and inconvenient airline delays.
The Eastern members of NATO have responded to this alleged “shadow war” which Moscow denies with far more public resolve than have their Western counterparts. Among nations like Poland, Romania, and Estonia, the resolve to continue supporting Ukraine has only been strengthened. After all, regardless of the changing tides of domestic politics throughout these nations, Russia’s war in Ukraine will remain an existential threat to them so long as the war continues.
In Germany, however, there is some room for concern. Berlin has enjoyed a comfortable distance from the geopolitical realities at play to its east for a long time. Not only does the largest power in Europe find itself trying to navigate between an escalatory response and “cowardly” inaction, but it is also far more subject to domestic sways in opinion over Ukraine compared to its eastern neighbors. With that being said, Russia’s provocations farther into NATO territory may play into the strategic outlooks of the Kremlin—and the German AfD— fairly well.
But Does it Even Matter?
What’s important to remember is that, at least in the short term, the Kremlin’s position has hardly improved. If anything, it is only making a greater fool of itself. The bulk of NATO support for Ukraine is coming out of Eastern Europe, which has hardly been swayed in its resolve to continue supporting Kyiv. And, perhaps most importantly of all, Russia’s shadow war has caused a great stirring in Washington.
Donald Trump’s most recent rhetoric has now supported Ukraine’s efforts to regain all of its lost territories occupied since 2022—and perhaps even 2014— in what is perhaps the most dramatic pivot in his outlook on Ukraine since taking office. Furthermore, Washington has approved Ukraine’s use of its own long-range missiles to strike targets deep within Russia.
It is through this lens that Russia’s efforts at harassment in Europe can be truly understood as laughable compared to the widespread hysteria that is quickly taking shape across Russia. Ukraine’s drone strikes against its adversary have proven themselves to be unconstrained by geographic distance or economic scope, resulting in such great damage to Russia’s petrochemical industry that it has had to bad exports of fuel in response to a growing gas shortage crisis.
Albeit, Russia is causing great disruption beyond its own borders. Ukraine is most certainly receiving more than its fair share of daily airstrikes on its largest cities, and the advent of hybrid warfare elsewhere in Europe presents itself to be a serious security threat to continental security. Yet, the situation in Russia itself is quickly becoming equally problematic in both scope and scale. What is different, and worse, for Russia, however, is that if the Kremlin begins to face the same degree of subterfuge and destruction which it has inflicted upon others, it will soon face the reality that its war effort is completely unsustainable.
And, with Trump now showing a willingness to exponentially bolster Ukraine’s capacity to inflict such disruption within Russia’s own borders, it now seems that previous assertions of Ukraine’s inevitable capitulation have considerably misinterpreted the reality of the situation in Eastern Europe.